Monday, September 23, 2019
Ethical Code of Conduct Thesis Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words
Ethical Code of Conduct - Thesis Example Ways to Implement the Ethical Code of Conduct 10 Consequences of Violation of Code of Ethics 11 Conclusion 12 References 14 Introduction With the technological innovations and advancements in the other sectors of the world, health has become one of the primary and significant sources of concern for an individual in the twenty first century. This is due to the reason that health enormities are escalating with the globalization that the world is experiencing in the contemporary world. However, with the emergence and development of the health care organizations, much awareness has come under creation for an individual. These health care organizations are key responsible for diagnosing, and treating the diseases, illness, injury or other physical and psychological harm that a person may encounter during his life. The health care serves as a promoter and upholds the healthiness, fitness, and wellbeing of the entire populace around the world as its fundamental purpose. Moreover, the key highlighting point of health care profession is to sustain, improve, and enhance the quality of life on whole of the general population. However, several code of ethical conduct needs to come under implementation for those in governance, management, and professional staff of the health care organizations. ... the ethical code of conduct also provides with the principles or the guidelines that can be set as a foundation for resolving the ethical dilemmas that can come under occurrence. In other words, ethical codes are the core values that grants the related people with the necessary actions that needs to come under performance in normal circumstances as well as when a conflict occurs. Value for people, reliability, commitment, devotion, and excellence should be the foundation stones while setting up an ethical code of conduct (Pera &à Tonder, 2005). One of the health care organizations that will come under discussion is Acute Care hospital, which is a subdivision of secondary health care. Here, the professional staff provides the patients with short-term care or support. However, the patients come under treatment for their serious illness, severe injury or during the recovery from surgery (Green, 2009). Facility Background Acute care facility comes under the division of secondary health care where immediate care comes under provision for the patients suffering from trauma, serious injuries or illness, or recovery from surgery. It is a care provided on a short-term basis, where the hospital facilities send the patients to their home or other medical treatment centers such as rehabilitation center, nursing home and few others when they see stableness in the health conditions of the patients. In addition, the patients come under treatment by the team of health care professionals ranging from medical to surgical areas of expertise. ââ¬Å"Hospitals, emergency departments, dialysis centers, clinical laboratories, urgent care centers and few long-term-care hospitals and facilities are all types of acute care facilities that come under offeringâ⬠(Green, 2009). Emergency or urgent
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Why did he write this Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
Why did he write this - Essay Example He does not necessarily write this essay simply to drum into its reader the importance of reading, which has been done many times and in many different ways, but to explore how reading shaped and morphed his life, and use this exploration to examine how people go about reading and what reading can be more generally, and hopefully, to have the reader examine their relationship to reading. ââ¬Å"The Lonely, Good Company of Booksâ⬠takes on almost a narrative format, outlining the different stages of his life in terms of what readings he did and how he interpreted readings. He starts by talking about his upbringing, about how his parents interacted with their reading and how that affected him. He said that his parents read nothing more substantive than a recipe or a pamphlet, and believed that reading should be kept to a bare minimum, only extract the important information you need and then stop (Rodriguez). He then moves on to explain the next step in his relationship with reading, and the influences on it. One of the major influences with reading was his mother, as mentioned before. When Rodriguez wanted to be a writer, his mother advised him not to, saying that it would be a foolish financial decision (Rodriguez). But there were counterinfluences going against the influence his parents put on him, like an Old Nun who encouraged him to read, telling him that th rough reading he could access new characters and experiences that he never would have been able to imagine or live himself. This narrative framework, talking about his relationship with reading from a young age as well as the influences who affected his relationship with reading, helps force anyone who reads ââ¬Å"The Lonely, Good Company of Booksâ⬠to examine the own parallel happenings in their life. Everyone conceives of their own life in a narrative form, understanding how they
Home of Mercy Essay Example for Free
Home of Mercy Essay Home of Mercy Home of Mercy is a sonnet written by Gwen Harwood during modern era Australia. It depicts the lifestyle of a select few group of ââ¬Å"ruined girlsâ⬠, who have been impregnated and exiled to live with the nuns throughout the course of their pregnancy, in hope of exoneration. It deals with the confronting issue of the loss youthful innocence; is a wrong decision made in your teenage years really enough to have the rest of your social life destroyed? Gwen Harwoodââ¬â¢s poem raises the problem of teenage pregnancy. Pregnancy in juveniles was something that shamed an entire family. With very few options, the young women were forced to live with the Catholic nuns in hope that god will show mercy upon them. The text was clearly written with a clear understanding of the feelings of the exiled women and the obvious suppression undergone by these girls. To some extent, ââ¬Å"Home of Mercyâ⬠loses some of its power in a modern context because of teenage pregnancies becoming more and more accepted. I think Gwen Harwood wrote her poem to not only outline the problem of unplanned pregnancy, but for the ââ¬Å"onlookerâ⬠to have a different perception on this topic. Most people would look at them as ââ¬Å"the ruined girlsâ⬠, but I think Harwood is trying to make the reader feel compassion and sympathy for these underappreciated girls. She implies that they live very harsh lives, and touches on the notion that they arenââ¬â¢t mature physically (or mentally) when she refers to them as having ââ¬Å"ripening bodies. In my opinion, Gwen is blatantly telling the reader that they should see both sides of this argument and not to jump to conclusions about them. The mood of ââ¬Å"Home of Mercyâ⬠is one of its fundamental tools in persuasion. It contains a very strong emotion of suppression and domination, with a strong influence of a lifeless and depressing overtone. A main emotion is the strict and forceful routine enforced by the Catholic Church. The opening sentence ââ¬Å"By two and two â⬠already suggests that they are standing in regimented lines. The next line ââ¬Å"at the neat margin of the convent grassâ⬠re-instates the sharp, tense lines symbolically representing their sharp, tense lives. The girls are shown as being ultimately dominated; ââ¬Å"They kneelâ⬠, ââ¬Å"their intolerable weekday rigour. â⬠, ââ¬Å"they will launderâ⬠. They have no say: ââ¬Å"an old nun who silences their talkingâ⬠, and are forced to do exactly what the nuns tell them or face life-long solitude. ââ¬Å"Home of Mercyâ⬠is structured like a conventional Petrarchan sonnet (abba rhyming scheme), with a few minor flaws in the flow (line 1 and 4 have 11 syllables, and line 6 has 12). A strange aspect of the poem is the use of language. The poem is about a group of girls being treated like the scum of the Earth, yet there arenââ¬â¢t many violent or hateful words at all. Most of the meaning is put through symbolic references and metaphors. The most hateful words are sin and brutish, which are only used toward the end of the poem for effect. Visual imagery is also strong in Harwoodââ¬â¢s poem. The opening line ââ¬Å"By two and twoâ⬠already gives the reader the impression that the girls are under strict control. angels will wrestle them with brutish vigourâ⬠is metaphorically saying that even the sacred angels wonââ¬â¢t be by their side; that everyone is against them. ââ¬Å"Home of Mercyâ⬠has iambic pentameter, with 10 syllables per line in most. A good example of Gwen using sounds to give effect to the poem is ââ¬Å"They smooth with roughened handsâ⬠, the soft sounds of ââ¬Å"smoothâ⬠in contrast of the harsh sounds of ââ¬Å" roughenedâ⬠have almost an onomatopoeic effect. Also, the line ââ¬Å"faces of mischievous children in distressâ⬠contains sibilance of the ââ¬Å"sâ⬠sound. ââ¬Å"Home of Mercyââ¬
Saturday, September 21, 2019
DBQ Essay Essay Example for Free
DBQ Essay Essay Throughout history, trade has influenced civilizations by expanding religions, spreading new products or ideas, and through transmission of diseases. As civilizations began trading more with other civilizations, trade networks were setup. Traders needed a safe route to get to cities in order to trade. With trade networks such as the silk roads, traders had a way to get from Europe to China to trade goods. With more and more people trading because of trade networks, there were both intentional and unintentional effects of trade. The spread of religion was heavily influenced by trade. Documents 2, and the both support this. The documents show that as people met in city markets, traders did not only trade inventions and products with another. Religious practices, cultures, and traditions were also spread. Document 2 shows that because of trade, religions such as Islam spread from Africa to as far as China in the east. Other religions such as Christianity and Buddhism were also spread. In Document 3, it shows that traders who came to the Swahili Coast to trade stayed there for a couple of months before returning home. Because of this, the traders would share their cultures, languages and religions with the native people who lived there. Over time, trade had a lasting effect on the Swahili Coast. The Swahili language today has some Arabic and Indian words in the language. Most people who are Swahili today also practice Islam as their religion. This would all never have been possible if it werenââ¬â¢t for the trade networks of the Swahili Coast or the Silk Roads. Aside from the spread of religion, trade also helped new ideas and products spread throughout the world. Documents 1,4,5 and 6 all show that throughout the world, many different products and ideas were spread because of trade. Document 1 shows Mediterranean trade being first controlled by Phoenicians and Greeks. The map in the document shows major products such as tin being traded between Greek and Phoenician colonies. Document 4 is a quote, it is implied that this Is coming from someone living in Europe during the Commercial Revolution. The person states that as food supplies increased in Europe, trade also began to increase. More goods were being created and traded all over Europe including, cloth, food, and leather. Towns would hold fairs every year for the trading of these goods. As trade increased, methods of getting cash and loans were developed. Banks were established by Christians and this all became the Commercial Revolution. Documents 5 and 6 further show how trade brought products from different civilizations all around the world. The Columbian Exchange in Document 6 shows how products from the Old World were brought to the New World. Some examples of these products include horses, bananas, black eye peas and beef. Document 5 shows how Marco Polo brought new ideas from China back home to Europe such as how to use coal for heat. While trade helped spread new ideas and products throughout the world, so did deadly diseases. Documents 6 and 7 both show how trade spread disease from one civilization to another. With the Columbian exchange in Document 6, deadly illnesses spread from the Old World to the New World. Disease killed off many indigenous people in the new world and would also enable conquerors from countries such as Spain to gain the upper hand in colonizing and conquering indigenous populations. Document 7 is a political cartoon. It is from the point of view of someone who is against globalization. The cartoon shows an army conquering an indigenous tribe. The members of the tribe all look very fearful and seem to have been forced out of their homes. The army who is conquering all has symbolism representing American culture and ideas. Although this document is biased towards the U.S, it does show the negative effects that trade can have on an indigenous population. These documents all show that trade had many lasting intentional and unintentional consequences on the many civilizations of the world. These include the expansion of religion, the spread of new ideas and products, as well as the transmission of deadly diseases. A document that would have been helpful in further analyzing the unintentional effects of trade would be one from the perspective of the civilization conquering the indigenous people. Overall however, these documents still show that because of trade, newà ideas, cultures and traditions have been spread throughout the world.
Sources of finance for British Airways
Sources of finance for British Airways British Airways Plc is an international schedule airline. The main activities of British Airways Plc are the operation of international and domestic scheduled air services for the carriage of the passengers, freight and mail and the provision of ancillary services. The Companys principal place of business is London with presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airport. The Company also operates a worldwide air cargo services. The Company flies more than 300 destinations worldwide. The Company supports the United Kingdom economy by providing vital leisure travel for holidays and family reunion. Outcome 1: Sources of Finance: Lack of cash is one of the biggest problems facing a business. Business would not be able to survive without cash. There are various sources of finance to activate the company. Different sources of finance apply to different circumstances. Funds are available from internal as well as external sources of finance. But each source has some advantages and disadvantages. Figure: 1 Internal sources Internal sources of finance usually have the advantage that they are flexible. They may also be obtained quickly and need not require the compliance of the other parties. Retained Profit: According to Gitman (2008)The accumulated net income that has been retained for reinvestment in the business rather than paid out in the dividends to stock holders. The amount of profit which left in the business after paying tax and distribution to stock holders that is retained profit. This money can be used for the expansion or investment of the business. When a company makes profit it does not spend it, it keeps it to use for company development or the owner can think to keep it for any future difficulties. BA had been making lots of profit for long time, it did not spend all the profits. BA has lots of Retained profit which it can use now as the company is not doing well at present. Sale of New Shares: New shares or ordinary shares form the backbone of the financial structure of a business. When BA needs fund then BA can sell their shares to the public. To sell new shares BA needs the services of agency, normally Merchant Bank. There are some problems with this source of finance like the existing shareholders might object to sale the shares to the outsiders. Right Issues: According to Atrill (2008) New stock (share) issue offered to existing stockholders (shareholders) in promotion to their current stock/shareholding, for a specific period and at a specified (usually discounted) price. Rather than taking debt, BA can ask its existing shareholders to buy some new shares to provide extra capital. This type of issue gives the shareholders the right to purchase new shares at a discount price to the market and give the existing shareholders the opportunity to increase their stock. When the companies are in trouble, especially when the companies are unable to borrow more money they usually use right issue to pay the debt. But there are some problems of right issue, such as -the value of share will be deducted so that the numbers of share can be increased. Secondly it is not certain that shareholders always getting a bargain as there is no opportunity to compare the market value. External Sources: Leasing: Leasing is like renting a piece of equipment or machinery. The business pays a regular amount for a period of time, but the item belongs to the leasing company. Leasing is cheaper than buying equipment but it is good for the short term. It also useful when the technology changes very quickly, so that it can be regularly updated and replaced. It also makes the cash flow management easy because the payment is done regularly. There are some disadvantages of leasing; it becomes very expensive for the long term because the leasing company charge fees which makes the total cost of the company greater than the original cost. Hire purchase: Business hires machineries or equipments for a period of time for which the company makes some fixed regular payments. When the fixed payment is finished the company becomes the owner of that equipment or machinery. The difference between the hire purchase and leasing is that in case of hire purchase after finishing the fixed payment the company becomes the owner of the equipment but in case of leasing the company never becomes owner, Burton and Brown (2009). Preference Share: Preference shares offer investor a lower risk than ordinary shares, provided there are sufficient profit available. Preference shares normally give a fixed rate of dividend each year and when there is any payment of dividend then the preference shareholders will be paid first. Recommendations: The most appropriate source of finance to fund the expansion and other operating activities of British Airways Plc depends on whether it is for short-term or long-term, and also on the cost and speed of arranging the finance. The internal sources of finance can be obtained quickly particularly from working capital source- and need not require the compliance of other parties, so for example, if British Airways needs to arrange fund within sort time then internal sources are appropriate, if the company needs funds for short term then the bank overdraft or loans are appropriate. However it is advisable that the company should always think about a mixture of sources. Outcome 2 Investment appraisal: One of the most important long-term decisions for any business relates to investment. According to Ennew and Waite (2007) Investment is the purchase or creation of assets with the objective of making gain in the future. Typically investment involves using financial sources to purchase machine/building or other assets for the purpose of getting returns over a period of time. The six stages of investment appraisal: Figure: 1 Project identification: British Airways need to find new opportunities for investment, generating ideas for new business development to survive and to grow the company wider. Screening for strategic fit: A lot of project could create value for a company but not for other. For selecting a particular project British airways must have to be aware of whether they need more capital and whether they have experience and skill for service Analysing in detail the implication of accepting the project: British Airways need to concern about the incriminated cash flows that could be generated by the project. For this process they need to consider the capital assets, cost, time, scale of operation and so on. Project evaluation: For this process British airways need to calculate various number of appraisal from the cash flows forecasts. Accept/ reject decision: Sometimes British airways take decision in the first stage then evaluate the project, otherwise after evaluation they decide whether to accept or reject the project. Ex-post decision review: British airways should draw lessons from the project that goes wrong and the project that goes right. Common appraisal measures which are used in British airways are as follows: Payback Period (PP) Average Rate of Return (ARR) Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Payback Period: According to Gitman (2008) Literally Payback is the amount of time required for the cash inflows from a capital investment in a project to equal the cash outflows. Payback periods are commonly used to estimate proposed investment and often used as an initial screening method. Payback period = Initial payment / annual cash flow So, if à £500 m is invested with the aim of earning à £700 m per year (net cash earnings), the payback period is calculated thus: P = à £500 m = 5years The shorter the payback period the better the investment. If there are two or more competing projects that are both shorter than the maximum payback period requirement then the decision maker should select the project with shorter payback period. Because using that project managers can recoup their cost within short time. Payback is perhaps the simplest method of looking at one or more investment project or ideas. Payback is popular because it is simply understandable and easy to calculate Payback uses cash flow not the profit and therefore it is difficult to manipulate. Average Rate of Return (ARR): According to Glautier (2001) The rate of earning obtained on the average capital investment over the life of a capital project; computed as average annual profits divided by average investment; not based on case flow. The average rate of return expresses the profits arising from a project as a percentage of the initial capital cost. The ARR method takes the average accounting profit; the investment will generate and expresses it as a percentage of the average investment met over the life of the process. Average annual profit ARR = ÃÆ'- 100 Average investment For example, British airways invested à £25m and expected to generate total revenues of à £50m for 5 years over the project. So à £50m à · 5 ARR = ÃÆ'- 100 à £25 ARR = 40% Like payback method, ARR is also simple to understand and easy to calculate. There is also a link with some accounting measure that is commonly used. The Average Rate of Return is similar to the return of capital Employed in its construction; this may make the ARR easier for business planners to understand. The ARR is expressed in percentage terms and this also the manager easy to use. The ARR doesnt take into account of the project duration or the timing of cash flows over the course of the project. The concept of profit is very subjective and there is variation in accounting practice thats why ARR calculation would likely be different for identical project. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR): According to Shapiro (2003) The IRR is the annual percentage return achieved by a project, at which the sum of discounted cash flows over the life of the project is equal to the sum of the capital invested. Another way is that the IRR is the rate of interest that reduces the NPV to zero. Net Present Value (NPV): According to Dunn and Kilgour (2009) The Net Present Value (NPV) is an investment (project) is the difference between the sums of the discounted cash flows which are expected from the investment and the amount which is initially invested. It is the first traditional valuation method used in the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) measurement methodology. NPV is calculated by using a discount rate equivalent to the interest which would be received, or interest to be paid by the firm. Rt NPV = (1+i)t Here, Rt = net cash Flow i = interest rate t = time NPV technique is mostly used by the managers because it is very easy to calculate. When the NPV is positive it means the project is worthwhile. So if there are more than one appraisal then the project should be selected which produces the highest NPV. But the biggest problem for NPV is that a project may have more than one IRR, if the company adopt IRR similar project and invest based on previous IRR which may not be appropriate. Outcome 3: Performance analysis for British Airways: After completing the proposed investment project it is the time to evaluate the performance analysis of British Airways: Figure:1 Non-financial: Balanced score-card: According to Norton and Kaplan (2009) The balance scorecard is a strategic and management system that is used extensively in business industry, government and non-profit organizations worldwide to align business activities to the vision and strategy of the organization, improve internal and external communications and monitor or organize performance against strategic goals. The balanced scorecard has evolved from its early use as simple performance measurement framework to a full strategic planning and management system. 12manage.com Financial Ratio analysis: British Airways produces annual and monthly financial statements to comply with record keeping requirement of the company. According to Gitman (2008) Financial ratio analysis and balanced sheet analysis ids incorporate in the financial scorecard tool, to provide a unique picture of a companys financial position 12manage.com Profitability ratio: The Profitability ratio is used to check that the company is generating an acceptable return for its owners. Gross profit margin: Gross profit represents the difference between sales value and the cost of the sales. Therefore it is a measure of profitability in buying and selling goods. Net profit margin: The net profit ratio represents the profit from trading operation before any cost of servicing long term finances are taken into account. ROCE: ROCE is considered to be a primary measure of profitability. It compares inputs (capital invested) with outputs (profit). Profitability of British Airways is growing every year that means the company is doing well and the profitability is better than Rayne Air in 2008. Liquidity Ratio: It is important for a business to be profitable, but profit is not sufficient on its own to guarantee survival. There must be sufficient liquid assets available to be forced into liquidation. Current Ratio: The current ratio is a measure of companys ability to meet its short time debts. This is important because the company could run out of cash and can be forced into liquidation even if it was making profit. Quick Assets Ratio (Acid Test Ratio): This ratio concentrates on those current assets which are immediately available to pay the creditors as and when they fall due. Total current assets are more than liabilities for British Airways in every year that means company doing well in compare to Rayne Air British Air is in better position. Efficiency Ratio: The efficiency Ratio gives an insight into the effectiveness of the companys management of the components of working capital. In year 2006 British Airways received payment within 30 days but the company made payment within 34 days, which is good for the company because the company made payment 4 days after receiving payment, other years also same situation. This is also comparatively better than Rayne Air.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Support Vector Machine Based Model
Support Vector Machine Based Model Support Vector Machine based model for Host Overload Detection in Clouds Abstract. Recently increased demand in computational power resulted in establishing large-scale data centers. The developments in virtualization tech-nology have resulted in increased resources utilization across data centers, but energy efficient resource utilization becomes a challenge. It has been predicted that by 2015 data center facilities costs would contribute about 75%, whereas IT would contribute the remaining 25% to the overall operating cost of the data center. The Server consolidation concept has been evolved for improving the energy efficiency of the data centers. The paper focuses on support vector machine based novel approach to predict the overload and underload pattern of the servers for better data center reconfiguration. Keywords: Support vector machine, energy efficiency. 1 Introduction Virtualization plays an important role in cloud computing, since it permits appropriate degree of customization, security, isolation, and manageability that are fundamental for delivering IT services on demand. One of its striking features is the ability to utilize compute power more proficiently. Particularly, virtualization provides an opportunity to consolidate multiple virtual machine (VM) instances on fewer hosts depending on the host utilization, enabling many of computers to be turned-off, and thereby resulting in substantial energy savings. In fact, commercial products such as the VMware vSphere Distributed Resource Scheduler (DRS), Microsoft System Center Virtual Machine Manager (VMM), and Citirix XenServer offer VM consolidation as their chief functionality[1]. But with the rapid growth in computing demand, the number of datacenters grows with the need which leads to more number of servers active at a time. The high active serversââ¬â¢ ratio leads to more energy emission and production of Carbon dioxide (CO2). According to data centersââ¬â¢ study, the data centers are not utilized up to their maximum utilization level which leads to more active servers, everyone utilized to less than their total capacity. With this in mind, it is worthwhile to attempt to minimize energy consumption through any means available. Various research agencies and universities have contributed into the research and design of heat dissipation and control in the data center. Virtualization is a technology that contributes to the maximum u tilization of the servers by virtual machine (VM) consolidation and VM Migration. The decision of reallocation of virtual machine for VM consolidation depends on the host utilization behavior. The VMs from the under-utilized and over-utilized hosts are relocated to other hosts by packing the VMs on minimum number of hosts. The hosts having no virtual machine are shifted to the passive mode so that the total energy consumption can be reduced. Statistical methods played a great role in predicting the behavior of the host in dynamic manner. The author [3] has proposed various statistical methods for host overload and underload behavior of the hosts in his thesis. These algorithms take input as the previous or current utilization of the hosts and predict the future based on the previous or current state of the system. He has proposed Local Regression, Median Absolute Deviation, Robust Local Regression and Markov Chain model for predicting the overloaded hosts [3]. All statistical models cannot be applied to all the environments. The choice of the statistical methods d epends on the input data, because every statistical model is based on some assumptions. Markov chain model assumes that the data will be stationary but complex and dynamic environment like cloud, experience highly variable non-stationary workload. The author [3] in his thesis modified his model by using multisize sliding window workload estimation method so that it can be suitable for the cloud environment. In this paper we have proposed a prediction based model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict the host utilization to forecast the host overload and underload behavior of the host. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 explains the basic concepts and modeling approaches of the Support Vector Machine. In section 3, the literature review related to Support Vector Machine is presented. In section 4 the model is applied to time series forecasting and its performance is compared with those of other forecasting models. Section 5 contains the concluding remarks. 2 Support Vector Machine Support vector machine is a novel technique based on neural network invented by Vapnik and his co-workers at AT T Bell Laboratories in 1995. The objective of SVM is to find a generalized decision rule through selecting some particular subset of training data, called support vectors. Training SVMs is equivalent to solving a linearly constrained quadratic programming problem. The quadratic equation is solved such that the solution of SVM is globally optimal and the quality complexity of the solution does not directly depend on the input space. Another key advantage of SVM is that SVMs tend to be resistant to over-fitting, even in cases where the number of attributes is greater than the number of observations. According to Vapnik there are three main problems in machine learning, e.g. Density Estimation Classification and Regression. In every case the main goal is to learn a function (or hypothesis) from the training data using a learning machine and then conclude general results base d on this knowledge. Time series is a series of data points S t à ¯ÃâÃ
½ R usually ordered in time. Time series analysis comprises the methods for analyzing the time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting models predicts future values based on the previously observed values. The main focus of this paper is to predict the overload and underload behavior of the hosts in cloud data centers based on the previous load pattern of the hosts in the datacenter. The time series prediction is affected by various factors like data is linearly separable or follows non-linear patterns, the learning is supervised learning or unsupervised learning and on support vector kernels. In Euclidean geometry linear separability is a geometric property of a pair of sets of points. The points are linearly separable or not are decided by visualizing the points in two dimensions plane by taking one set of points as being colored green and the other set of points as red. These two sets are linearly separable if there exists at least one line in the plane with all of the green points on one side of the line and all the red points on the other side. Usually in practical problems the data points are mapped to the high dimensional plane and the optimal separating hyper plane is constructed with the help of some special functions known as support vector Kernels in this new feature space. This method also resolves the problem where the training points are not separab le by a linear decision boundary. Because by using an appropriate transformation the training data points can be made linearly separable in the feature space. Figure1 (a) Linearly separable data1(b) non-linear patterns of data In supervisory learning, the training data is composed of input as well as the output vector (also called supervisory signals) whereas in un-supervisory learning the training data is composed of only input vectors. Supervisory learning produces better results because the output vector is already known and the predicted values by the SVM are compared with the output to learn better for the next step. In un-supervisory learning the output data points are not known and the training depends on the probability to drive better results out of it. SVM comes in the supervisory learning category and the kernel function makes the technique applicable for the linear as well as non-linear approximation. 3 Related Works In various practical domains time series modeling and forecasting has essential importance. A lot of research works is going on in this subject during several years. Many models have been proposed in literature for improving the accuracy and efficiency of time series modeling and forecasting. The author [1] has compared various time series prediction methods widely used these days. This paper investigated the application of SVM in financial forecasting. The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA), ANN, and SVM models were fitted to Al-Quds Index of the Palestinian Stock Exchange Market time series data and two-month future points were forecast. The results of applying SVM methods and the accuracy of forecasting were assessed and compared to those of the ARIMA and ANN methods through the minimum root-mean-square error of the natural logarithms of the data. Results proved that svm is better method of modeling and outperformed ARIMA and ANN. The author of [2] explains the time series concept and the various methods of predicting the future values based on ARIMA model, Seasonal ARIMA model, ANN model, time lagged ANN, seasonal ANN, SVM for regression, SVM for forecasting etc. they have also explained the forecast performance measure MFE (Mean Forecast Error), MAE (Mean Absolute error), MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error), MPE (Mean percentage error), MSE (Means squared error) etc. In paper [5], a model based on least squares support vector machine is proposed to forecast the daily peak loads of electricity in a month. In [5] the time series prediction was first used to forecast electricity load .In paper [4] the author has improved the method presented in [5] to derive more accurate results. The author has proposed dynamic least square support vector machine (DLS-SVM) to track the dynamics of nonlinear time-varying systems. The dynamic least square method works dynamically by replacing the first vector by the new input vector to obtain more accurate result.. The author in paper [9] has proposed the modified version on svm for time series forecasting. The algorithm performs the forecasting in phases. In the first phase, self-organizing map (SOM) is used to partition the whole input space into several disjointed regions. A tree-structured architecture is adopted in the partition to avoid the problem of predetermining the number of partitioned regions. Then, in the second phase, multiple SVMs, also called SVM experts, are constructed by finding the most appropriate kernel function and the optimal free parameters of SVMs. 4 Support Vector Machine Regression Formulations for Forecasting Host Overload Detection Host overload and underload detection is based on current utilization patterns of the host. The host utilization is a univariate time series. In univariate time series the future values are entirely based on past observations. The goal of the SVM regression is to find a function that presents the most deviation from the target values so the maximum allowed error is. The future values are predicted by splitting the time series data into training inputs and the training outputs. Given training data sets of N points, with input data and output data . Assume a non-linear function as given below: (1) w = weight vector, b=bias and is a non-linear mapping to a higher dimensional space. The optimization problem can be defined as: : (2) is a user defined maximum error allowed. The above equation (2) can be rewrite as: : (3) To solve the above equation slack variables needs to be introduced to handle the infeasible optimization problem. After introducing the slack variables the above equations takes the form as given below: : (4) The slack variables defines the size of the upper and the lower deviation as shown in the figure 2(a). Figure 2 (a) The Accurate points inside Tube 2(b) Slope decided by C For simplicity and for avoiding the case of infinite dimensionality of the weight vector w the optimization operation are performed in the dual space[4] the Lagrangian for the problem(a) is given by [2] (3) Here, where are the Lagrange multiples. Applying the conditions of the optimality, one can compute the partial derivatives of L with respect to equate them to zero and finally eliminating w and obtain the following linear system of equations (4) Here, and with is the kernel matrix. The LS-SVM decision function is thus given by [4] (5) The dynamic least square support vector machine is modified so that it is best suitable for the real world problems. The key feature of DLS-SVM is that it can track the dynamics of the non-linear time varying system by deleting one existing data point whenever a new observation is added, thus maintaining the constant window size. 4 Experiments We have used CloudSim for retrieving the utilization of the host based on the workload defined in the PlanetLab folder in CloudSim. It contains the daily virtual machine requirement and the utilization of the host is calculated based on the daily requirement of the virtual machines. After retrieving the utilization of the hosts LSSVMLabv1 toolbox is used for support vector regression and the results are compared with [10] and [5]. The comparison is based on MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and Maximal error (ME). The chart shows that DLS-SVM produce better forecast for the load pattern of the hosts in the data centers. Figure2: Comparison of errors References Okasha, M. K.,Using Support Vector Machines in Financial Time Series Forecasting.International Journal of Statistics and Applications 2014, 4(1): 28-392. Adhikari, R., Agrawal, R. K. (2013). An Introductory Study on Time Series Modeling and Forecasting.arXiv preprint arXiv:1302.6613. Beloglazov, Anton. Energy-efficient management of virtual machines in data centers for cloud computing. (2013). Niu, D. X., Li, W., Cheng, L. M., Gu, X. H. (2008, July). Mid-term load forecasting based on dynamic least squares SVMs. InMachine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on(Vol. 2, pp. 800-804). IEEE. Bo-Jeun Chen, Ming-Wei Chang, and Chih-Jen LIN, ââ¬Å"Load forecasting using support vector machines: A study on EUNITE competition 2001â⬠, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 1821-1830, Nov. 2004. Fan, Y., Li, P., Song, Z. (2006, June). Dynamic least squares support vector machine. InIntelligent Control and Automation, 2006. WCICA 2006. The Sixth World Congress on(Vol. 1, pp. 4886-4889). IEEE. Kim, K. J. (2003). Financial time series forecasting using support vector machines.Neurocomputing,55(1), 307-319. Gui, B., Wei, X., Shen, Q., Qi, J., Guo, L. (2014, November). Financial Time Series Forecasting Using Support Vector Machine. InComputational Intelligence and Security (CIS), 2014 Tenth International Conference on(pp. 39-43). IEEE. Cao, L. (2003). Support vector machines experts for time series forecasting.Neurocomputing,51, 321-339. Haishan Wu, Xiaoling Chang. ââ¬Å"Power load forecasting with least square support vector machines and Chaos Theoryâ⬠, Proceedings of the 6th World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation, Dalian, China, June 21-23, 2006. Rà ¼ping, S. (2001).SVM kernels for time series analysis(No. 2001, 43). Technical Report, SFB 475: Komplexità ¤tsreduktion in Multivariaten Datenstrukturen, Università ¤t Dortmund.
Machiavelli Has Had A Great Influence Politics Essay
Machiavelli Has Had A Great Influence Politics Essay Princes and governments are far more dangerous than other elements within society. Niccolo Machiavelli. Machiavelli is known as the father of modern political thought. He has had an incredibly large influence on our modern civilization. Firstly Machiavellis opinions on politics and political leaders effected how future political leaders would run their countries. Additionally Machiavelli had a much larger influence on the future of modern western civilization in comparison to the renaissance artists of his time. Also his opinion on how the government is run demonstrated in his book The Prince changed they way in which we view how our government is run. Furthermore Machiavellis innovative writing style made him a noted writer in the history of western civilization. Machiavellis tactics and style of military influence has played its toll in shaping our world today. Machiavellis influence outshines any other reformation leader. Niccolo Machiavelli was born in the year 1469 in midst of a shifting political time in Italy. The fear and invasion from powerful states such France and Spain threatened the Italian government. Alexander Borgia was elected the pope through bribery and threats. Pope Alexander used the churchs wealth to benefit his own family. Some of the parts of Italy became Republic and others like Venice fell to dictators. No monarchy was present and no centralized government existed. Each city was like its own separate nation. Italy was struggling to unify itself. Machiavelli served the Borgia family as a political advisor. Machiavelli noticed the infighting among the rivaling Italian city-states but saw the effectiveness in the Borgia family members in maintaining their power. In forming his opinions he developed a treatise known as The Prince. The book was based upon his ideal Prince. Machiavelli describes his position that the Prince should be the only authority determining different aspects of the state to serve his best interest. These interests should be gaining, maintaining and expanding political power. In his books he is often very contradictory of himself. He believed that a prince should only serve his own best interest. If a prince cannot be both feared and loved it is better for him to be just feared. Machiavelli derived his views from the experience of the Caesura Borgia who was the current Prince of Italy during his time and hopped that it would provide a framework for future princes. Some historians may argue that artists such as Leonardo Da Vinci or Michelangelo had a greater influence of modern history then Machiavelli. Although a piece of art can be admired it remains nothing more than a piece of art. An individual whom is able to examine and explain human society and functions such a Machiavelli have much more substantial impact on history then a mere artist. Political scientist Max Lerner wrote in the introduction of the 1950s edition of the Prince that Machiavelli recognized the existence of the power of politic. The Prince is a main piece of evidence that define Machiavelli more influential than any artist to the renaissance period. Machiavellis most well known work The Prince became the best source to view of how politics works and it remains used by political thinker in the modern world. Sir Francis Bacon once wrote, We are much beholden to Machiavelli and others, that write what men do, and not what they ought to do. This means that Machiavelli wrote about political reality unlike political theories and how the government should be run. Seeing how our political world is run changed how the people viewed the government. Machiavellis realization allowed the future political theorists of the modern world to evaluate politics. It is unknown whether or not Machiavelli wrote The Prince to gain political appointment or out of a need for self-therapy. Nonetheless he was able to synthesize the traditional with the innovative unlike any other political philosopher of his time. In addition to Machiavellis political theories he is also very innovative in his writing style. A man clearly from the Renaissance Machiavelli clearly left his mark on history as a well-known and studied writer. Firstly his place Mandragola is often categorized as one of the most well written plays in the Italian language. Furthermore he wrote an essay called On Language. The essay includes principles on the science of semantics. This is one of the first written pieces to contain information on this topic. In recent years management theorists have been responsive to the fact that Machiavelli predicted the need for management theorist and also in developing guidelines applicable to deal with conflicts with business executives. Military theorists often reflect Machiavellis innovative warfare tactics and theories. A man of physical action at the age of 29 in 1498, Machiavelli accepted the position in Florence. His position was entrusted with diplomatic missions to local and other European courts. His position required great diplomacy and a substantial amount of understanding of European politics. Furthermore he involved himself in establishing the Florentine Militia. Due to the constant warfare of the shifting nations, while in office Machiavelli handled with military affairs. He had a substantial amount of practical experience with military matters. Frederick Taylor notes that Machiavelli is an important individual in the history of military theories. He notes: Machiavelli is the first secular writer to attempt to allot to the practice of arms its place among the collective activities of mankind, to define its aims, and to regard it as a means to an end. His book the Art of War published in 1521 it was the third of his major works in time. The book was thought to be technical. His theoretical point of view is dedicated to Lorenzo de Medici. Machiavelli confirms the unity of a countrys civil and military life. Today, people who think of only a civil life do not accept this. He states that the military and civil life of a nation is inseparable therefore a necessary moment in history. Some may argue that the Reformation religious leaders such a John Calvin or Martin Luther have a greater influence in history than Machiavelli. Martin Luther remains only a leader of the Reformation era through Roman Catholic or Protestant. Even in his own time John Calvins influence was no comparison to Martin Luther. Catholic leaders spent the reformation reacting to Martin Luther. Luthers influence is not equivalent to Machiavellis. Luthers influence was only concerned to Christianity, which has become less present to financial and political affairs concerning the modern western civilization. The Prince remains today a large influence on the political and financial operations of our modern world. The opinions on politics and political leaders that Machiavelli had would have a substantial influence on how future political leaders would run their countries. Secondly his influence in comparison to artist of his time is much larger. Additionally as demonstrated in his book The Prince the opinions that he had on how the government is run would alter how governments in the future would be run. Moreover the writing style that he adapted gave him a renowned name for himself and would be adapted by future writers. Due to his military experience Machiavellis tactics and style of military presented to make him be a noteworthy individual in modern western civilization. played its toll in shaping our world today. Lastly Machiavellis influence on the reformation would not be match worthy to any other reformation leader..
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